Winter is rushing in! However, there is a trend of "high temperature and high sunshine" through December, with sunny days in early spring [1 month forecast]

2025/11/13 14:53

Early next week, the strongest cold air of the season is expected to arrive,
to bring snow to western Japan, and the cold winter weather is expected to arrive in mid-November.

However, according to the one-month forecast (weather outlook for November 15th to December 14th) released by the Japan Meteorological Agency today, November 13th (Thursday),
it is not like we are heading into winter, and the progress of the season seems to be going up and down.



[Key points of the 1-month forecast]
#Temperature#
Northern Japan: The influence of cold air is weak, and temperatures are at or above normal.
Eastern to Western Japan: Temperatures will be lower than normal at the beginning of the period due to strong cold air.
#Precipitation#
There are many days covered by high pressure, and there is little in eastern and western Japan.
#Sunshine hours
It is abundant in eastern and western Japan, and at or above normal in northern Japan.




Looking at the monthly average sea level pressure in the chart on the left, it is predicted that the
continent (near northeastern China) will have lower atmospheric pressure than normal, as shown in light blue.

Normally, the Siberian High pressure system strengthens over the continent through December,
blowing cold air into the vicinity of Japan, but
this year, the overhang of the Siberian high pressure system is weak, so
the winter-like pressure pattern centered on northern Japan is not expected to last long.

Also, if you look at the temperature at about 1,500m above the top of the chart on the right,
the area around northern Japan is orange, indicating that the temperature is higher than normal.
This indicates that the southward movement of cold air is weak, mainly in northern Japan.
Also, the deviation from normal is predicted to be small in eastern Japan and south.



Looking at the average temperature on a weekly basis,
from November 15th to 21st, temperatures are expected to be low mainly in western and eastern Japan due to the influence of the season's strongest cold air flowing in from the west.

However, after November 22nd, temperatures are expected to be higher than normal in northern Japan,
east to western Japan are expected to be at or above normal, and
this trend is likely to continue in northern to eastern Japan after November 29th.

As a result, there will be December cold in some places next week, but
from late November to early December, it will be sunny and warm,
and there will be some days where it will be a sunny day.

Typhoon No. 26 Don't let your guard down even if it becomes a temperate cyclone. Extremely heavy rain in Okinawa and Amami. Gradually the main island of Okinawa becomes a heavy rain.

2025/11/13 12:14

#Despite becoming an extratropical cyclone, Okinawa/Amami faces landslides Okinawa is also on alert for high waves
Today, Thursday, the 13th, Typhoon No. 26 approached the Sakishima Islands, and at 9 a.m. it turned into an extratropical cyclone in the waters near Yonaguni Island.
This extratropical cyclone has merged with a front that has been stationary for a long time near the Nansei Islands.
It is expected to move eastward over the Nansei Islands until tomorrow, the 14th (Friday), with some development.
Due to the influence of the low pressure system and warm, humid air blowing into the front, atmospheric conditions will become extremely unstable in Okinawa and Amami until tomorrow, the 14th (Friday).



#In some places, the total precipitation has already exceeded 300mm
For the past few days, the Nansei Islands has been experiencing continuous rain due to the stationary front and the approach of Typhoon No. 26, and there are some places where the total precipitation since the day before yesterday and the 11th (Tuesday) has exceeded 300mm.
[Precipitation amount from yesterday 11th (Tuesday) to today 13th (Thursday) 10 am]
Okinawa Main Island region, Kumejima-cho Janado 356.0mm
Miyakojima region, Shimojishima Airport 106.0mm
Yaeyama region, Yonaguni-cho Sonai 233.0mm
Amami region Kikaijima 176.5mm
As of 9 a.m. today, the 13th (Thursday), heavy rain warnings have been announced in some parts of Okinawa's main island and Amami.

#Extremely heavy rain forecast for Okinawa main island and Amami



Today, the 13th (Thursday), it is expected that there will be extremely heavy rain in the main island of Okinawa and Amami with waterfalls of 50 mm per hour, and in some places in the Sakishima Islands there will be heavy rain of 30 mm per hour.
The ground has become loose in some places due to the rain that has fallen so far, so please be on alert for landslides in Okinawa and Amami through tomorrow, the 14th (Friday), and be careful of flooding in low-lying areas and rising river levels.
Depending on the degree of rain cloud development, heavy rain warnings may be extended to more areas or the warning period may be extended.

#Beware of increasingly severe high waves, with the risk of storms



There are swells in the coastal waters of the Okinawa region, and large waves on the Sakishima Islands.
Towards tomorrow the 14th (Friday), the gradient in atmospheric pressure will increase between the low and high pressure systems.
Even on the main island of Okinawa, the wave height is expected to gradually exceed 6 meters today, the 13th (Thursday), and it will become a major storm.
Be wary of high waves with swells.
Very strong winds are expected to blow in the Sakishima Islands and the main island of Okinawa into tomorrow, the 14th (Friday).
The maximum instantaneous wind speed is expected to be 35m/s.
Please be careful of strong winds.
Depending on the degree of atmospheric pressure gradient, there is a risk of strong winds today, the 13th (Thursday).

Typhoon No. 26 approaches Okinawa, fear of extremely heavy rain in the Nansei Islands, strict alert for landslides

2025/11/13 07:06

As of 6 a.m. today, the 13th, Typhoon No. 26 is located approximately 120 km southwest of Yonaguni Island and is moving north-northeast at a speed of approximately 25 km per hour.

#Typhoon No. 26 13th (Thursday) 6:00
==================/br Center position Approximately 120km
southwest of Yonaguni Island Travel north-northeast 25km/h
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed 20 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 30 m/s
==================



Typhoon No. 26 is expected to continue moving northeast, approaching the Okinawa region, and becoming part of the front in the afternoon, turning into an extratropical cyclone. Due to the effects of typhoons, extratropical cyclones, and warm, humid air heading towards the front, the Okinawa and Amami regions will continue to experience extremely unstable atmospheric conditions today, the 13th. Rain clouds will develop near the front, and extremely heavy rain of more than 50 mm per hour is expected to occur, accompanied by thunder, resulting in heavy rain in some places.

In the Okinawa and Amami regions, please be on high alert for landslides until tomorrow the 14th (Friday), and be cautious of flooding of low-lying areas, rising water levels and flooding of rivers. In addition, in the Okinawa region, please be careful of high waves with swells and be careful of strong winds today, the 13th.
Today, the 13th, people in the Okinawa and Amami regions need to be careful of strong gusts of wind, including lightning and tornadoes.




#Expected amount of rain (in places where there is a lot)
+Expected 1-hour precipitation amount for today, the 13th
Amami region 50mm
Okinawa main island region 50 mm
Sakishima Islands 50mm
+1-hour precipitation expected for tomorrow 14th (Friday)
Amami region 30mm
Okinawa main island region 30mm
br+Precipitation expected for 24 hours by 6:00 tomorrow 14th (Friday)
Amami region 180mm
Okinawa main island region 180mm
Sakishima Islands 100mm

#Expected wind strength
+Expected wind direction/maximum wind speed (maximum instantaneous wind speed)
Okinawa main island region Northeast wind 2 3m/s (35m/s)
Sakishima Islands Northwest and then north wind 20m/s (30m/s)
+Wind direction and maximum wind speed (maximum Instantaneous wind speed)
Okinawa main island region Northeast wind 20m/s (30m/s)
Sakishima Islands North wind 17m/s (25m/s)

# Forecast Expected wave height (with swells)
+Expected wave height for today, the 13th
Okinawa main island region 5m
Daitojima region 4m
Sakishima Islands 6m
+Wave height expected for tomorrow 14th (Friday)
Okinawa main island region 5m
Daitojima region 4m
Sakishima Islands 5m

Weather for today, the 13th (Thursday): Rain in the north and south; heavy rain warning in Okinawa; risk of thunderstorms in Hokkaido

2025/11/13 06:27

Typhoon No. 26 will approach Okinawa today, the 13th (Thursday). There is a risk of heavy rain in the Nansei Islands, so vigilance is required. A front has passed through northern Japan, and it is likely to rain.



Due to the front passing through northern Japan, it will rain mainly on the Sea of Japan side. When the front passes, the rain will become stronger and there is a risk of localized thunderstorms. Be careful of lightning, hail, and sudden heavy rain. At night, even flat areas may turn to snow in some places.
On the Pacific side, there is plenty of time for sunshine, but please be careful of rain showers.

The sky is dominated by clouds from eastern Japan to western Japan. Although there are some areas on the Sea of Japan side where the sun will reach, there will be thick clouds mainly on the Pacific side, and there is a possibility of showers. When you go out, it will be safe to have a folding umbrella. During the day, the temperature in many places will be higher than the day before, so it will be a relatively pleasant experience. Please be aware of the temperature difference between morning and evening.

The Nansei Islands will experience intermittent rain due to typhoons and fronts. Locally, the rain will become heavier, with the possibility of extremely heavy rainfall of more than 50 mm per hour. Okinawa has experienced heavy rain in the past, so strict vigilance against landslides is necessary.

Typhoon No. 26 approaches Okinawa tomorrow. Warning for heavy rain tomorrow; places with heavy rain and maximum instantaneous wind speed of 30 m/s

2025/11/12 16:55

Continuing from today, the 12th (Wednesday) and yesterday, the 11th (Tuesday), active rain clouds associated with a front are passing through the Nansei Islands, and the rain is locally increasing. We need to be on guard against heavy rain until tomorrow the 13th (Thursday), when Typhoon No. 26 approaches.



As of 3:00 pm today, Wednesday the 12th, Typhoon No. 26 is slowly moving east-northeast through the Bashi Strait with strong winds.
From now on, Typhoon No. 26 will move northeast near the Bashi Strait, and will move southwest of Yonaguni Island at 3:00 a.m. on the 13th (Thursday) tomorrow.
It is expected to turn into an extratropical cyclone north-northwest of Miyakojima at 3pm on Thursday the 13th.
In Okinawa, there will be a large pressure gradient between the typhoon and the high pressure system.
Also, due to the influence of warm and humid air flowing in from the front and around the typhoon, extremely unstable atmospheric conditions are expected to continue into tomorrow, the 13th (Thursday).

Although the landslide alert has been lifted for the main island of Okinawa, the ground is loose in some places due to the rain that has fallen so far, so please continue to be cautious of landslides and flooding of low-lying areas today, Wednesday the 12th, and be careful of rising river waters.
Depending on the degree of rain cloud development, heavy rain warnings may be issued for a wider area or the warning period may be extended.



In the Sakishima Islands, it is expected that there will be heavy rain in some places until tomorrow, the 13th (Thursday), with an amount of 30mm falling over an hour.
Please be careful of landslides, flooding of low-lying areas, and rising river waters.
Depending on the degree of rain cloud development, there is a risk of heavy rain reaching warning level until tomorrow, the 14th (Friday).

The waters off the coast of Okinawa will continue to be rocky with swells until tomorrow the 13th (Thursday), with waves reaching heights of 5m in some places on the main island of Okinawa.
The Sakishima Islands are expected to experience heavy waves on the Sakishima Islands tomorrow, the 13th (Thursday), exceeding 6m in height.
Please be careful of high waves accompanied by swells.



Very strong winds and strong winds are expected to blow in Okinawa until tomorrow the 13th (Thursday).
The wind is expected to become even stronger tomorrow, the 13th (Thursday), with a maximum instantaneous wind speed of 30m/s.
Please be careful of strong winds.
There is a risk of strong winds in the Sakishima Islands tomorrow, the 13th (Thursday), depending on the path of the typhoon and the strength of the winds in the East China Sea.

The aftermath of the Kuroshio meander continues, with sea surface temperatures lower than normal in the waters near the Izu Islands [Ocean summary November 2-8, 2025]

2025/11/12 13:38

The Japan Meteorological Agency and Japan Coast Guard have announced that the Kuroshio Current Meander will end in April 2025 (announced on August 29, 2025).

However, according to JAMSTEC's Kuroshio Watch,
``the aftermath of the Kuroshio Great Meander continues, and meandering is occurring as the
vortex that was torn off from the Kuroshio is absorbed.''



The Kuroshio Current is flowing south of Hachijo Island, and sea surface temperatures near the Izu Islands are lower than normal.

Below is a summary of the ocean from November 2nd to 8th, 2025.



#Pressure distribution and waves
On November 2, a front extending from a low pressure system developing near the Chishima Islands
became stationary from the east of Japan to the waters near Ogasawara.
In the Sea of Okhotsk, waves exceeded 6 meters in height and became a major storm.

On the 3rd, the atmospheric pressure around Japan was high in the west and low in the east,
with wave heights of 4m mainly in the western and central parts of the Sea of Japan, where winds from the north were dominant.

On the 5th and 6th, a low pressure system accompanied by a front moved eastward south of Japan.
On the 6th, wave heights were widely over 3m on the Pacific side, and wave heights of 4m near the Izu Islands.

On the 7th, a low-pressure system developed in the east of Japan and moved northward, and the pressure around Japan became high in the west and low in the east.
On the night of the 7th, wave heights of 7m were observed in the Sea of Okhotsk, and wave heights of 5m were observed off the coast of Sanriku.



#Sea surface temperature
Sea surface temperatures in the Japanese Sea were around normal or slightly higher than normal, and
waters continued to be lower than normal on the continental side of the central Japan Sea.

The East China Sea continued to be at normal levels.
On the Pacific side, the sea area continued to be at normal levels in the south of Japan, but
below normal sea areas expanded from the Izu Islands to the Boso Peninsula, where the Kuroshio current flows off shore.

Off the coast of Sanriku, the area of sea area that is above normal has expanded, and
off the coast of Fukushima, an area that is below normal has expanded.
Off the southeastern coast of Hokkaido, the area of water much lower than normal has expanded.
The Sea of Okhotsk remained at normal levels.

Next week will be the cold of December, the strongest cold air of the season, the impact of Typhoon No. 26 [Weekly Weather]

2025/11/12 12:06

#Weekly Weather Points#
+``Typhoon No. 26'' will approach the Okinawa region tomorrow
+The strongest cold air inflow of the season will occur from the 17th (Monday) to the 18th (Tuesday)
+``Winter storm'' on the Sea of Japan side, with cold northerly winds on the Pacific side



Today, November 12th (Wednesday), there are fewer streaks of clouds associated with the cold air on the Sea of Japan side, and
there are many sunny days in eastern and northern Japan.

Meanwhile, from western Japan to the Nansei Islands, there is cloud cover from the
front and Typhoon No. 26.

Today, rain clouds formed due to the front,
Heavy rain fell on Kumejima in Okinawa Prefecture, with a rainfall of 347.0 mm in the 24 hours until 7 a.m.,
breaking the record for November.



The typhoon is expected to approach the Okinawa region tomorrow, the 13th (Thursday), and the active rain clouds of the typhoon itself are expected to cover the main island of Okinawa and the Amami region.
The expected 24-hour precipitation in the Okinawa region is high,
120 mm
until 6 a.m. tomorrow, Thursday the 13th, and 100 mm
from 6 a.m. tomorrow, Thursday the 13th to 6 a.m. Friday, the 14th.

In the Okinawa region, the ground has loosened in some places due to the rain that has fallen so far, so
continue to be wary of landslides and flooding of low-lying areas, and
take extra precautions against rising river waters.



From the 14th (Friday) to the 15th (Saturday), it will be covered by high pressure moving from the continent
There will be many areas around Honshu that will be sunny.

On the 16th (Sunday), a low pressure system will develop as it approaches northern Japan, and the strongest cold air of the season is expected to flow over Japan from
17th (Monday) to 18th (Tuesday).



Looking at the forecast for cold air from the 16th (Sunday) to the 18th (Tuesday), it is predicted that on the 16th (Sunday), warm air will flow towards a low pressure system, comparable to late October.

However, on the night of the 17th (Monday), cold air that brings snow in the mountains (below 0c at around 1500m) will move south to the Pacific side of western Japan.

Furthermore, on the night of the 18th (Tuesday), cold air (less than -6 degrees Celsius at around 1500m above the ground) that brings snow on the plains is expected to move south to the Hokuriku region, and
to temporarily flow into the Sea of Japan side of western Japan.

When it rains in the mountains of western Japan, it's not rain, but snow in many places, and even on the flatlands of western Japan, there may be places where it snows here and there.

If you drive over mountain roads or passes, it would be a good idea to change to
winter tires by the end of this week.



Looking at the weather for the coming week,
northern Japan is likely to experience frequent snow and rain, and
there is a possibility that it will snow every day in northern Tohoku next week.

Even on the sunny Pacific side, northerly winds are blowing, bringing the cold of winter.
Please take care of your physical condition as the temperature will vary greatly from day to day.

Typhoon No. 26 Okinawa region: Beware of disasters caused by heavy rain

2025/11/12 08:41

As of 6 a.m. today, November 12th (Wednesday), Typhoon No. 26 (Fongwon) is located near the Bashi Strait and is moving slowly north-northeast.
The central pressure is 992hPa.



The typhoon is expected to move northeast near the Bashi Strait on the 12th and approach the Okinawa region on the 13th. Additionally, a front is extending from near Taiwan through the Nansei Islands to the south of Japan, and due to the influence of warm, humid air moving towards the front from around the typhoon, extremely unstable atmospheric conditions will continue in the Okinawa region until the 13th.

-Rain Forecast
The atmospheric conditions in the Okinawa region will be extremely unstable, so there will be places where there will be heavy rain accompanied by thunder.
The predicted 24-hour precipitation from 6:00 on the 12th to 6:00 on the 13th is high in some places,
Okinawa region 120mm
Then, from 6:00 on the 13th to 6:00 on the 14th,
Expected 24-hour precipitation will be high in some places,
Okinawa region 100mm

-Wind forecast
There will be some places in the Okinawa region where there will be very strong winds on the 13th.
Maximum wind speed (maximum instantaneous wind speed) expected on the 12th
Okinawa region 15 meters (25 meters)
Maximum wind speed (maximum instantaneous wind speed) expected on the 13th Wind speed)
Okinawa region 20 meters (30 meters)

-Wave forecast
In the Okinawa region, there will be some places where there will be heavy waves on the 13th.
Wave height expected on the 12th
Okinawa region 4 meters with swell
Wave height expected on the 13th
Okinawa region 6 meters with swell


In the Okinawa region, on the 12th, be alert for landslides and flooding in low-lying areas, and be cautious and alert for rising river levels. On the 13th, be alert for high waves accompanied by swells, and be cautious and alert for strong winds. Also, be cautious of severe gusts such as lightning strikes and tornadoes.

Conditions close to La Nina phenomenon towards the beginning of winter What are the trends in winter in Japan

2025/11/11 13:28

The Japan Meteorological Agency released an El Nino monitoring bulletin on Monday, November 10th.

Currently, conditions appear to be normal, with neither El Nino nor La Nina occurring, but conditions are said to be close to La Nina.
It is expected that La Nina-like conditions will continue through the beginning of winter, but since they will quickly resolve after that, a La Nina phenomenon will not occur, and it is likely that normal conditions will continue through the beginning of spring.



#El Nino/La Nina phenomenon Last month's October live report (from the Japan Meteorological Agency)
It appears to be normal conditions with neither El Nino nor La Nina phenomena occurring, but conditions are close to La Nina.
The difference in sea surface temperature in the El Nino monitoring area in October from the standard value was -0.5c, which was lower than the standard value.
Also, the 5-month moving average used to determine the occurrence of El Nino/La Nina phenomena in August was -0.3c, close to the standard value.
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean were higher than normal in the western part of the country, but lower than normal in the central and eastern regions.
Surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean were higher than normal in the western part of the ocean, but lower than normal in the central and eastern regions, with low temperatures becoming stronger in the eastern part. The easterly winds (trade winds) in the lower atmosphere of the equatorial Pacific region were stronger than normal in the western and central regions.
Convective activity was active near Indonesia, but inactive near the international date line in the equatorial Pacific.
These atmospheric and ocean conditions appear to be normal, with neither El Nino nor La Nina occurring, but they indicate conditions close to La Nina.



#Future outlook (from the Japan Meteorological Agency)
Conditions close to La Nina will continue into the early part of winter.
However, since it will quickly resolve after that, a La Nina phenomenon will not occur, and normal conditions are likely to continue until the beginning of spring.
According to the live report, cold water continues in the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The coupled atmosphere-ocean model predicts that as trade winds continue to be strong in the equatorial Pacific, sea surface temperatures in the El Nino monitoring area are likely to remain lower than the standard value through the beginning of winter.
After that, however, this state will not last long because the atmosphere-ocean coupling will weaken, and sea surface temperatures are expected to rise rapidly, reaching values close to the standard value at the beginning of spring.
From the above, it is likely that conditions close to La Nina will continue through the beginning of winter, but will not reach the point where La Nina occurs, and normal conditions will continue through the beginning of spring.



#Characteristics of Japan's weather during the La Nina phenomenon
The characteristics of Japan's weather during the La Nina phenomenon during the three months centered on December (November to January) are that the average temperature tends to be average or low in eastern and western Japan.
Precipitation tends to be high on the Sea of Japan side of northern Japan, and low on the Pacific side of eastern Japan and western Japan.
Sunshine hours tend to be high in western Japan, and average or low in Okinawa and Amami.

Typhoon No. 26 takes a sharp turn; warning-level heavy rain is expected until Friday the 14th in Okinawa; strong cold air will flow westward next week [Weekly Weather]

2025/11/11 11:55

As of 9am today, November 11th (Tuesday), Typhoon No. 26 (Fuongwon) is located in the South China Sea and is moving north-northwest at a speed of 15 km/hr.

The central pressure is 980hPa, accompanied by stormy winds.



From now on, it will gradually change its course to the northeast while weakening its strength, and
is expected to approach and land on Taiwan on the afternoon of the 12th (Wednesday) tomorrow.

It is expected to get very close to the Sakishima Islands in Okinawa on the 13th (Thursday), and turn into an extratropical cyclone south of Okinawa by the morning of
14th (Friday).

The typhoon itself is approaching Okinawa's Sakishima Islands while weakening, but
warm and humid air is flowing towards the stationary front near the Nansei Islands,
and there is a risk that heavy rain will continue for a long time even if the typhoon weakens.

There are already heavy rains in some places even before the typhoon approaches,
heavy rain warnings and flood warnings have been announced in the Yaeyama region, including Miyakojima in Okinawa.
Be wary of flooding in low-lying areas, rising water levels and flooding of rivers.

Locally heavy rain will fall in the main island of Okinawa and the Sakishima Islands through tomorrow the 12th (Wednesday),
and depending on the degree of rain cloud development, there is a risk of warning-level heavy rain until around
14th (Friday).
Please be careful of landslides, flooding of low-lying areas, and rising river waters.


[Rain forecast] (24-hour rainfall/in areas where there is a lot of rain)
Today, the 11th (Tuesday) noon to tomorrow 12th (Wednesday) noon
Okinawa main island region 120mm
Sakishima Islands 60mm
From tomorrow 12th (Wednesday) noon to 13th (Thursday) noon
Okinawa main island region 80mm
Sakishima Islands 50mm
.


Very strong and strong winds are expected to blow in the Okinawa region into the 13th (Thursday),
, and swells are expected to occur in coastal waters.

Please be careful of high waves and strong winds.
Please note that depending on the path of the typhoon and the strength of the winds in the East China Sea, there is a risk of strong winds and heavy storms in the Sakishima Islands on the 13th (Thursday).

Also, in the Sakishima Islands and Okinawa main island region,
be careful of strong gusts such as lightning and tornadoes.



After changing from a typhoon to an extratropical cyclone and becoming unclear near Okinawa,
15th (Saturday) will be covered by high pressure and many places will be sunny.

On the 16th (Sunday), a low pressure system accompanied by a front will develop and move towards northern Japan, and
from the 17th (Monday) onwards, a strong winter-type pressure pattern is likely to occur.



The strongest cold air of the season is expected to flow westward from the 17th (Monday) to the 18th (Tuesday).

Snow will fall on the plains over western Japan (below -6c at around 1500m)
Strong cold air will flow in.

It looks like there will be snow in some places in the mountains of western Japan, and it looks like the season will take another big step next week.

Please take care of your physical condition as the temperature difference will be large.